Who has heard about the Western Sahara Conflict? In all honesty, the conflict does not seem to have a pole position when it comes to the media agenda. Nevertheless, the Western Sahara conflict remains one of the most protracted territorial disputes in the whole world. Situated in North Africa between Morocco and Mauritania, along the Atlantic coast, the region has seen decades of international neglect, with little progress made in resolving the underlying issues. The complexity of the situation, involving a mix of historical grievances, international politics, and conflict over valuable natural resources, has made it a source of instability that has far-reaching consequences.
Understanding the conflict: A brief history
The history of Western Sahara is deeply influenced by colonialism and the geopolitical struggle of the colonial aftermath. Originally, the territory was a Spanish colony known as the Spanish Sahara, located on the northwest coast of Africa. The region had been under Spanish control since the late 19th century. However, compared to other (Spanish) colonies the region was not very prominent due to the arid landscape and hence had less economic impact for the Spanish colonizers.
In the mid-20th century, as the tide of decolonization began sweeping across Africa, Western Sahara’s future became increasingly contentious. Following the rise of nationalist movements throughout the continent, the Sahrawi people, an ethnic group native to the Western Sahara, led by the Polisario Front, began seeking independence. This nationalist movement was founded in 1973 and was rooted in the Sahrawi desire for self-determination, as well as the recognition of their cultural and territorial rights.
Finally, in 1975, Spain decided to withdraw from Western Sahara with the Franco dictatorship in Spain coming to an end. However, the withdrawal was poorly planned and left the region in a state of political limbo – a conflict was born.
As Spain withdrew, Morocco and Mauritania, the two neighboring countries, moved to claim the territory. Morocco had long considered Western Sahara an integral part of its “Greater Morocco” vision and viewed the land as historically and culturally linked to its own territories. Mauritania, on the other hand, sought control over the southern part of the territory due to its proximity to Mauritania’s own borders and interests in expanding its influence. The Sahrawi nationalist movement, led by the Polisario Front, rejected these annexations, asserting that the Sahrawi people had the right to self-determination and independence. The conflict soon escalated into a protracted war. Morocco and Mauritania faced significant resistance from the Polisario Front, which received support from Algeria, which had long been a vocal advocate for Sahrawi independence. In 1979, Mauritania, recognizing the futility of its involvement, withdrew from the conflict, leaving Morocco to control the bulk of the territory. From that point on it was the Polisarion Front facing Morocco.
In 1991, a UN-brokered ceasefire was established, accompanied by a promise to hold a referendum on self-determination for the Sahrawi people. However, the referendum has yet to take place due to political deadlock and Morocco’s resistance to granting independence. The situation remains frozen, with the status of the territory still unresolved.
Trump plays his cards
Before Donald Trump’s first term ended in 2020, he was a vocal supporter for Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and upended the previous US policy in North Africa by proclaiming that the US supported Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed area. This statement coincided with a joint declaration between Morocco, Israel and the United States in late 2020, that all the nations recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara, as well as strengthening alliances between the countries as part of the Abraham Accords.
While the Biden campaign did not implement the changes in policy, the US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty seemingly encouraged many other countries to do the same, making it even more difficult for the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) to establish and be recognized as an independent state.
With Trump back in office as of January 20th 2025, it remains to be seen of what steps the US will continue to take regarding the disputed region. Many academics and experts predict that Trump will likely continue to recognize and vocally support Morocco and its apparent sovereignty, due to the close connection between Trump and the current king of Morocco, King Mohammed VI. This can be done in numerous ways, such as giving financial support, increasing diplomatic visits and even pressuring European partners to do the same.
Why does this matter?
The Western Sahara conflict is far from just a regional issue—it has significant global implications. After Trumps’ support for Morocco in 2020 the UN ceasefire agreement collapsed. The collapse was caused by Morocco using military force against Sahrawi civilians which in turn led to retaliation from the Polisario Front. The two sides have as recently as November 2024 exchanged drone strikes and shell fire over the territory. The month before the UN proposed dividing the land between the two sides, but this proposal has been rejected by both parties. The UN does not recognize Morocco’s claim on the territory.
From the international perspective, it is important to note that the African Union officially recognizes the independence of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), and backs their claim to the Western Sahara. The SADR officially joined the African Union (AU) in 1948 which led to Morocco withdrawing from the union. However, they rejoined in 2017, and the AU has chosen to avoid discussions regarding the conflict.
Furthermore, the dispute over the Western Sahara could also have ramifications for other regions in Africa. Iran has supplied the Polisario Front with weapons which could bring into question whether the Western Sahara territory is being used as a proxy between states in the region. Moreover, Algeria as of 2021 has chosen to sever ties with Morocco as a direct result of the US recognizing the Western Sahara as Moroccan. Relations between the two nations were already tense, with Algeria letting the Polisarion Front operate from their territory. The conflict could escalate as the different sides are backed by different powers in the region. This could ultimately have international implications as more powers could get involved backing different sides, causing tensions between states where there previously weren’t any.
The Western Sahara is also an economic asset. It is estimated that Morocco and the Western Sahara contains 70% of the words phosphate supply, and the Western Sahara supplies Morocco with 10% of their phosphate exports. Phosphates are a key ingredient in fertilizer production, making them essential for global agricultural systems and food security.
The ongoing conflict could have negative ramifications for the Moroccan economy as it could affect the Moroccan access to the territory and the phosphate. This could arguably be one of the reasons that Western powers have taken an interest in the region. While the West often frames its involvement as a matter of supporting territorial sovereignty or stability, the reality is that securing control over phosphate production is of direct economic benefit.
The economic importance of the region cannot be overlooked, as it plays a pivotal role in the global food production system, and Western backing for Morocco could be as much about protecting these supply lines as it is about political strategy.
Was all of this new to you? Or have you already heard about it and are interested in discussing the matter further?
Join the Conference
On Wednesday the 2nd of April, Aalborg University will be holding a conference titled Western Sahara and the UN Security Council-The Way Ahead. The conference will have a special guests such as Lave Broch, a Danish politician and chair of the Danish UN Association’s Peace and Conflict resolution committee, Finn Reske-Nielsen, the former assistant security general for the United Nations, with over 3 decades of experience in humanitarian and political affairs, and Klaudia Zielinska, recipient of the 2022 ‘UN Youth of the Year’ Award. The conference will explain the conflict, discusses recent visits to the refugees affected by the conflict in Algeria, as well as role playing the upcoming Western Sahara meeting at the UN Security Council in October. There will also be the opportunity to hear from Saharawi representatives and their solutions and suggestions for the Nordic countries, as well as asking questions and getting answers on what the Nordic countries focus in the UNSC should be.
There will be tea, coffee and cake as well as great networking opportunities. Did we mention it is also FREE to attend?
Important information:
When: WEDNESDAY 2Nd April 2025, 14.00 – 17.00
Where: AALBORG UNIVERSITY (AAU), KROGHSTRÆDE 3, 9220, AALBORG ROOM 4.112
Register before the 25th of March
For more information, please contact Lave Broch: +45 28 92 21 27